If the LTTE had not been defeated in 2009: Sri Lanka in 2025

 

Let us look at the “what if” scenario based on pattern of LTTE terror – where they killed, who they targeted, Tamil children kidnapped, impact on tourism & investment, people’s peace of mind & extrapolate this to 2025. These scenarios are to make people revisit what life was like before 2009 for those who seem to have conveniently forgotten as well as to remind those who were not present throughout these terror decades of what terror was like.

Before 2009

• Thousands killed by LTTE from the 1980s onward.
• Suicide bombings, targeted assassinations, massacres were routine.
• Tamil children abducted from homes and schools; one-third of LTTE cadres were child soldiers.
• People lived in constant fear- Those born after 2009 or living abroad may not even understand what it meant to check under your car for bombs, to wonder if your child would return safely from school, or to stand in line at a bus station not knowing if a suicide bomber was waiting nearby. A parcel or bag would send shivers to many and everyone was looked at with caution.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnloGsgnKrc – former LTTE child soldier speaks

https://www.hrw.org/report/2004/11/10/living-fear/child-soldiers-and-tamil-tigers-sri-lanka

https://www.hrw.org/reports/2007/srilanka0107/7.htm

https://www.hrw.org/report/2006/03/14/funding-final-war/ltte-intimidation-and-extortion-tamil-diaspora

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQwuX1nlVWc

 

Who else would LTTE assassinated ???

For three decades, LTTE terror was daily reality — yet not one UNHRC resolution, not one UN panel, not one call by a UNSG for accountability. Every LTTE massacre was reported as ‘allegedly by LTTE’ and its leader respectfully called ‘Mr. Prabhakaran.’ Yet after 2009, with civilians freed and child soldiers rescued, Sri Lanka faced 11 hostile resolutions.

Why punish the political leader and the armed forces that ended terror while ignoring the terror itself? Who can answer?

 

After 2009

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mqKHgEGeKI

 

• Massive development in North & East: restored electricity, renovated homes, roads, railways, schools, hospitals, places of worship.
• Tourism and investment boomed; people from North and South traveled freely, rebuilding trust and social bonds.

Projected LTTE Impact if terror continued (2009–2025)

Scenario	Deaths	Child Recruitment	Displacement	Annual Cost to State	Total Cost (16 yrs)
Low-Intensity	8,000–15,000	1,000–5,000	Hundreds of thousands	$2.2–2.7B	$35–40B
Medium-Intensity	20,000–35,000	10,000–15,000	1–2 million	$3.8–4.5B	$60–70B
High-Intensity	50,000–80,000	20,000–30,000	2–3 million	$6.5–8B	$100–125B

 

By 2025 Sri Lanka would have faced:

• Regular checkpoints and suicide bomb fears in Colombo.
• Tamils in the North forced to carry LTTE IDs, pay taxes, and risk torture if they disobeyed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwkkclDAzPE
• A new brain drain, with professionals and youth fleeing abroad.
• Risk of foreign ‘peacekeeping forces’ turning parts of the island into international protectorates.
• Global image of Sri Lanka reduced to another Somalia or South Sudan, not a rising Asian hub.”
• Those calling for ‘federalism’ or ‘self-determination’ should reflect — in reality, LTTE-run North and East meant torture chambers in Thunukkai, forced taxes, and child abductions. Is this the ‘freedom’ they wanted Tamils to enjoy

 

And yet, when the State fought to prevent exactly these outcomes, the so-called guardians of human rights tried to punish it.

Would they have preferred Sri Lankans to bleed endlessly so their reports and resolutions could continue and they would have monthly salary”

Even Prabakaran’s parents were chased out of the refugee camps by their own people.

It was the Armed Forces who kept them safely until their deaths.

Key points:

• LTTE controlled Northern & Eastern provinces; terror extended to Colombo and Western economic centres.
• Civilians would remain at constant risk; travel restricted with checkpoints, curfews, LTTE taxation, and forced IDs, Tamils could not move out of North without LTTE permission.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtyXD3CQfEs&t=313s

• All Tamils defying LTTE orders ended up in Thunukkai LTTE torture chambers most not coming out alive.
• Tourism, foreign investment, and infrastructure projects (Hambantota Port, Mattala Airport, Colombo Port City, expressways, hotels and condominiums that that emerged since 2009) would likely not exist.
• Schools disrupted, local economies weakened, public services hindered, daily life dominated by fear, curfews and security checks

 

Thus, if LTTE prevailed after 2009 …. the cost to

1. Human Life:Tens of thousands more killed; thousands of Tamil children abducted or conscripted.

 

2. Development:Post-2009 tourism surge (438,000 in 2008→3million arrivals by 2018) and major infrastructure projects would not have occurred.

 

3. Time & Connectivity:Expressways reduced travel drastically —

Colombo–Matara from 4–5 hours to 1.5 hours;

Colombo–Katunayake from 1.5 hours to 20 minutes.

Without stability, these would have been unsafe or unbuilt.

 

4. Societal Stability:Schools, markets, civic institutions, and freedom of movement restored post-war; without victory, these would remain disrupted.

 

Why the 2009 Victory matters

 

It is worth recalling the hypocrisies:

• The West that bombed Iraq and Afghanistan in the name of fighting terror wanted Sri Lanka to shake hands with suicide bombers.
• The Tamil diaspora that sent money to buy weapons for LTTE refused to send their children as child soldiers and instead sent their own children to universities abroad, while funding LTTE to abduct Tamil children back home. The same Tamil diaspora did not send a dollar to rebuild Tamil schools or hospitals. They are shedding crocodile tears at Mullaivaikkal Memorials – in reality these tears are for the dead LTTE not Tamil civilians. These hypocrisies can never be forgotten.
• International media found the language of doubt when LTTE massacred, but certainty when accusing the Sri Lankan Armed Forces.

 

Against all these hypocrisies, President Mahinda Rajapakse’s decisive orders and the Armed Forces’ professionalism saved lives, safeguarded children, and restored normalcy.

Over 300,000 civilians were rescued from LTTE who kept them for months as human shields and hostages.

Today’s peace, prosperity, and freedom — economic growth, tourism, infrastructure, and social cohesion — are a direct legacy of that victory.

Those living in Colombo who have forgotten or demean the victory today, would not be able to even comment as they do had LTTE been a force.

Sri Lanka’s stability and development in 2025 are owed entirely to the courage, vision, and sacrifice of that political leadership and armed forces. No one should belittle this achievement.

 

Had the Armed Forces failed, by 2025 Sri Lanka would not be a nation debating reconciliation, it would be a failed state begging for survival. That is the truth every citizen must remember before belittling the sacrifices of 2009. It is a pity he is not only being hounded by hypocrites internationally but at home as well too – ironically by those who have had links to LTTE & continues to do so now too.

 

Had Sri Lanka not won in 2009, the debate in 2025 would not be about reconciliation or investment. It would be whether Sri Lanka still existed as one nation at all. That is why President Mahinda Rajapakse’s decision and the Armed Forces’ sacrifice remain not just historic, but existential.

 

For ending terrorism – what did Sri Lanka get? 11 UNHRC Resolutions seeking to punish Sri Lanka.

This cannot be allowed – Truth & Justice must prevail.

 

 

 

Shenali D Waduge