Sri Lanka at the crossroads of a US–India standoff

 

Sri Lanka has rarely been treated as a sovereign nation in international geopolitics. Sri Lanka had very few leaders able to read geopolitical shifts well enough to spin it to Sri Lanka’s advantage. Sri Lanka has been positioned as a pawn on the chessboard of great powers. Today, we see another dimension unfold. As tensions sharpen between the United States and India despite their QUAD partnership, Sri Lanka once again finds itself caught in the middle of a rivalry it neither initiated nor controls. Yet, Sri Lanka can play a pivotal role to moot the Indian Ocean as a Region of Peace and realign the Global South towards a nenewed collaborative non-alignment.

 

QUAD: Partnership or Proxy?

 

When India joined the QUAD, it was presented as a platform for Indo-Pacific security and prosperity. India was given great prominence as a key ally of the US.

New Delhi, saw it as a chance to claim global stature. This was not what US or West had in mind.

 

India’s friendship with the US/West with hidden costs:

• India compromised its regional autonomy, opening South Asia and the Indian Ocean to greater Western penetration. India had invited the enemy to Asia.
• Washington never intended India to be an equal partner — only a proxy buffer against China with “friendship” serving as a camouflage to fool India/Indians.
• In the process, India weakened the very regional balance it sought to preserve.

 

As per Modern War Institute: “India represents a natural counterbalance in a region where China’s strength, leadership, and boldness are increasing”

 

Caspian Asper Society: “The U.S. is actively encouraging India to counterbalance China’s growing influence by increasing its own investments and security presence in the Indian Ocean.”

 

While US viewed India as a counter-balance, India wished to use US friendship for bigger goals.

 

India’s Ideology: Akhand Bharat and Regional Hegemony

 

With this newly gifted “ally” status India leveraged its superior role by presenting the ideology of Akhand Bharat — the dream of a “Greater India” extending over South Asia controlled by India. The map exposed India’s ambitions. This cost India its friendship.

 

Ironically, Tamil Nadu’s own secessionist noise — fueled by Western actors — now turns this map against New Delhi.

• Since independence, India has pursued a hegemonic foreign policy, seeking dominance over Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Sri Lanka. The proudly displayed map has now backfired on India with West’s tool in Tamil Nadu calling to merge Sri Lanka in another gameplan controlled by West.
• From military interventions to political interference, New Delhi has historically destabilized its neighborsto ensure they never challenged India and remain destabled so India can call the shots.
• In Sri Lanka, India’s hand was most visible in the creation, training, and arming of the LTTE. Having created the problem, India then posed as the solution — forcing Sri Lanka to sign the Indo-Lanka Accord in 1987 and amending the Constitution to divide the nation into nine provinces with a merged North–East. These were not LTTE demands, but India’s leverage solely for its advantage.

 

This ambition continues today, dressed in the language of “regional security” and “partnerships.” and India’s “national security”.

Ironically, it is India who has undermined its national security by the manipulations it has played.

https://www.thenewsminute.com/news/bangladesh-questions-controversial-akhand-bharat-mural-mea-responds-178478 – Bangladesh questions controversial Akhand Bharath mural & map

https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/7wesmameg8

 

Sri Lanka’s 2015 Regime Change: A Piece of the Puzzle

 

Sri Lanka’s 2015 regime change did not occur in isolation. It was part of the West’s Indo-Pacific design: India partnered with US to

 

• Install Ranil-Maithri regime to power. This was the catalyst of Sri Lanka’s decline negating all the sacrifices to unite the nation and weakening Sri Lanka’s defense & security apparatus that eventually led to Easter Sunday debacle turning Muslim youth into Islamic jihadi terrorists and crippling the economy to tie Sri Lanka to IMF policies.
• The MCC compact, co-sponsorship of UNHRC resolutions, and renewed focus on the Tamil issuewere strategic tools not reforms to tinker with Sri Lanka’s penal code, administrative systems and Parliamentary powers. The linkages forged between Sri Lanka’s Parliament, Public Sector with US & India is evidence of both competing to control & manipulate Sri Lanka’s policy making apparatus with little or no resistence from Sri Lanka.
• The Northern Province was being quietly groomed as a Western-aligned enclave, both to pressure Colombo and to hold the potential of balkanizing India. India pre-empted this by increasing its control over economic-cultural-educational domains via MOUs and backroom deals. These maneuvers would have also added to Washingtons displeasure.

 

Both the West and India competed for slices of Sri Lanka — aided by Colombo’s short-sighted leaders and pliant bureaucrats.

 

India’s Miscalculation: Pawn in a Bigger Game

 

Modi’s ambition to make India a global force blinded New Delhi to a sobering truth:

• The West was never elevating India, only using it temporarily.
• West envisioned India’s role as an enforcer, not leader, in South Asia.
• As India tries to hedge back toward Russia and China, India continues to carry forward its destructive DNA. India remains a key player in obstructing full BRICS integration, its credibility is questioned by both neighbors and partners.

 

India, has been reduced to a pawn — though on a larger square of the board than Sri Lanka.

While India played pawn, China has steadily expanded economic clout without needing QUAD theatrics.

 

The US–India Standoff: Sri Lanka in the Crossfire

 

The emerging rift between Washington and New Delhi leaves Sri Lanka exposed and vulnerable for lack of political leadership, will or beaurocratic advisory solutions

• If India clings to QUAD,, both West & India, will intensify its footprint in Sri Lanka,– both serving their own purposes at the peril of Sri Lanka’s.
• If India leans toward Russia–China, Washington will tighten its hold on Colombo through its Colombo-based pawns to secure an Indian Ocean outpost – what would this mean for Sri Lanka?
• In both cases, Sri Lanka risks becoming a bargaining chip, not a partner.

 

Yet, Sri Lanka can manipulate the situation to its advantage – only with the correct leaders & proper advisors.

 

Both US & India have economically trapped Sri Lanka – leaving little room for Sri Lanka to maneuver independently. Petty party politics have hampered any ability for Sri Lanka to forge the correct geopolitical ties that can help Sri Lanka sail through the rough weather.

What the Next 5–10 years could look like 

 

Scenario 1: India stays with QUAD

• India doubles down on alignment with the US, despite irritants.
• Sri Lanka becomes the testing groundfor India–US joint projects — infrastructure, security cooperation, political influence.
• Colombo loses room for neutrality, pulled deeper into a Western security orbit, with greater UNHRC scrutinyand economic dependency. However, India must view this as a strangulation point impacting India.

 

Scenario 2: India tilts back to Russia–China

• India recalibrates towards multipolarity, deepening ties with Moscow and Beijing.
• The US then seeks to tighten control over Sri Lankaas its Indian Ocean foothold.
• Sri Lanka risks being militarized by external powers, as a hedge against both India and China.

 

Colombo is forced into constant balancing, often at the expense of sovereignty. Colombo would seriously need to reassess siphoning of its strategic assets & resources considering these scenarios.

However, Sri Lanka could leverage this to revive BRICS+ links and attract multipolar investment.

 

Scenario 3: India Plays “Strategic Autonomy”

• India tries to walk a middle path, not fully committing to QUAD or BRICS.
• Both the US and China court Sri Lanka aggressively, while India quietly expands economic leverage and its heritage cultural links.
• Sri Lanka becomes a silent battlefield of influence— with overlapping projects, debt traps, and political manipulation — unless Colombo asserts a strong independent strategy.

Emerging Social Undercurrents

 

This geopolitical game has social spillovers often overlooked:

 

Anti-Indian sentiment in the West:

• Indian students and professionals face visa rejections (H1B visa tightening, UK migration limits on Indians) and reduced PR pathways. This weakens India’s global brand — and Sri Lanka should observe closely how this shift changes the power equation.
• Rising anti-Muslim sentiment in the West: Both India and Sri Lanka’s Muslim populations are impacted, with anti-Muslim sentiments shaping foreign policy discourse. This may harden Western intervention narratives.
• Sri Lanka’s brain drain returning home: Fired with ambition and skills, returnees will demand bigger stakes in national decision-making. Harnessing them productively could be Sri Lanka’s game-changer.

 

Sri Lanka’s Hidden Opportunity

 

Yet within this storm lies an opportunity for Sri Lanka:

• India’s ambitions of Akhand Bharatalienate its neighbors — Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Bhutan are wary of New Delhi’s dominance.
• As India loses credibility in the region, Sri Lanka can position itself as a hub of neutrality, building ties across blocs while resisting absorption into any one camp. Sri Lanka must rejuvenate the non-aligned status & demand the Indian Ocean Region return to its original charter Zone of Peace – Sri Lanka must champion this as a Global South Initiative. Sri Lanka once championed the Indian Ocean as a Zone of Peace in 1971. Reviving this initiative as part of a Global South narrative would give Colombo both moral and diplomatic leverage
• By exposing India’s record of destabilization — from backing the LTTE to meddling in domestic politics — Colombo can push back against New Delhi’s narrative and reclaim diplomatic leverage.
• By channeling returning talent and asserting independence, Sri Lanka can reset its role in the Indian Ocean.

 

Pondering the Future

 

So, we must ask:

• Is Sri Lanka truly important to the West, or merely a means to the endof cornering China and managing India?
• Have we connected the dots between QUAD, regime change, UNHRC resolutions, and foreign-funded projects — all strands of one design?
• Will we continue as a pawn in someone else’s endgame, or finally reclaim our sovereignty in the Indian Ocean?

 

Sometimes the greatest danger for small nations is not invasion, but manipulation.

India’s dream of Akhand Bharat and Washington’s Indo-Pacific designs are two sides of the same coin — both reduce Sri Lanka to a pawn. But every pawn, if moved wisely, can change the board. The challenge before Sri Lanka is whether we have the vision and courage to make that move.

 

Given the rising anti-India currents in the West and the erosion of trust in New Delhi’s regional role, India itself should recognize the danger of intrusive international mechanisms. UNHRC Resolution 60/21 against Sri Lanka may appear to target Colombo today, but the precedent it sets will inevitably rebound on India tomorrow. For that reason alone, India must mobilize its diplomatic weight to lobby African/Asian/Latin American/Middle East UNHRC members to vote against this resolution — not out of affection for Sri Lanka, but out of self-preservation for all the members.

 

That move must be bold and historic: Sri Lanka should convene a new Non-Aligned “Zone of Peace” Summit in Colombo. Just as we once championed the Indian Ocean as a Zone of Peace in 1971, we can revive that call under a Global South framework.

 

Such a summit would:

• Reassert Sri Lanka’s role as a neutral hub of dialogue in the Indo-Pacific.
• Rally neighbors wary of both Indian hegemony and Western militarization.
• Position Colombo as the moral and diplomatic center for a 21st-century Non-Aligned revival.

 

If Sri Lanka takes the lead, it will no longer be a pawn shuffled by others, but the square on which the next game of geopolitics is reset.

 

 

 Shenali D Waduge