PART 6 – 35 Indo-Lanka Agreements – Geopolitical Risks, Strategic Precedents & the Indian Footprint in Sri Lanka
Beyond bilateral cooperation, the 35 Indo-Lanka agreements signed from Dec 2024 to April 2025 raise serious geopolitical, strategic, and national security implications. Sri Lanka now finds itself entangled in India’s broader ambitions—from energy corridors and religious soft power to maritime dominance and digital surveillance.
This section analyzes how these agreements mirror India’s strategic expansionism, how they could destabilize internal ethnic harmony, erode Sri Lanka’s non-aligned policy, and set dangerous precedents for other foreign powers seeking similar influence.
Key Geopolitical and Strategic Risks:
- Surveillance & Military Access to Sri Lanka’s North, East & Sea Lanes
- India-linked radar systems and surveillance infrastructure across Palaly, Trincomalee, and Mannar give New Delhi eyes on Sri Lanka’s internal and maritime movements.
- The Indian Navy and intelligence arms now gain real-time tracking over Palk Strait, Gulf of Mannar, and possible access to Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) coordination.
Precedent: The Maldives’ expulsion of Indian troops shows similar concerns over sovereignty violation.
- Maritime and Port Control with Dual-Use Implications
- India’s access to Kankesanthurai (KKS) Port, Trincomalee oil tank farm, and Colombo Harbour infrastructure allows military-civil dual use under commercial camouflage.
- Exclusive rights granted to Indian entities over docking, fuel storage, and port management are long-term strategic footholds.
Risk: Erodes Sri Lanka’s ability to maintain non-aligned status in the Indian Ocean and reduces strategic space for partnerships with China, Russia, or ASEAN states.
- Soft Power Overreach Through Religion & Education
- The Ramayana Trail, Indian scholarships, and Hindu-centric cultural diplomacy reshape Sri Lanka’s historical and religious identity narrative, especially in North and Central provinces.
- India’s Ministry of Culture and private trusts influence Sri Lankan curriculum, archaeological interpretation, and temple funding.
Strategic Goal: Create a civilizational claim or religious protectorate status over segments of Sri Lankan territory.
- Energy Grid Integration and Infrastructure Dependence
- Sri Lanka’s power grid is being integrated with India’s under the India-Sri Lanka Power Grid Interconnection Project.
- Future energy flows can be influenced, disrupted, or manipulated by India during political disagreements or crises.
Precedent: India previously cut off power supply to Nepal over political disputes in 2015.
- Digital and Cybersecurity Penetration
- Indian telecom, fintech, and IT firms are operating in Sri Lanka’s public systems, banks, and mobile networks (e.g., Aadhaar-like digital ID system).
- Shared data centers, digital education platforms, and smart governance tools allow surveillance and behavioral profiling of Sri Lankan citizens and officials.
Precedent: Similar systems in Bhutan and Nepal led to data control complaints.
- Economic Zones and Resource Extraction Rights
- Indian firms have been granted mining rights (graphite, ilmenite), industrial zones, and land use in strategically sensitive areas—particularly in the North and East.
- Many of these zones overlap with former LTTE-controlled territories, raising alarm over quasi-territorial Indian presence.
Risk: May lay groundwork for soft separatism or external patronage of federalist demands in the future.
- Erosion of Sri Lanka’s Role as a Neutral Indian Ocean Hub
- The sheer volume and scale of Indian involvement puts pressure on diplomatic ties with China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, and even ASEAN states wary of Indian hegemony.
- This undermines Sri Lanka’s longstanding non-aligned foreign policy and may drag it into proxy competition between regional giants.
Global Lens: With US-India QUAD interests overlapping, Sri Lanka may be viewed as an Indian satellite.
Summary of Precedents set by these Agreements
| Sector | Strategic Precedent Created | Risk to Sri Lanka |
| Ports & Defense | Dual-use civilian-military presence | Loss of maritime autonomy |
| Education & Culture | Indianization of curriculum and heritage | Identity and religious manipulation |
| Energy & Infrastructure | Operational control over power and mobility grids | Energy dependency and national security |
| Digital Systems | Integration of surveillance and data collection | Digital colonization |
| Resource Zones | Indian-managed mining and industry in conflict zones | Territorial and economic exploitation |
The 2024–2025 Indo-Lanka agreements signal more than bilateral partnership. They represent a quiet geopolitical conquest via contracts—reshaping Sri Lanka’s internal systems, religious identity, digital sovereignty, and strategic independence. The precedent set is alarming: once sovereignty is eroded by stealth, reversing it may take generations.
