SOLD: How AKD’s India deals are dismantling Sri Lanka’s Sovereignty — Countdown to a “2030 Takeover”

 

Between December 2024 and May 2025, a pen — not a gun — redrew Sri Lanka’s future. A series of bilateral pacts and MoUs signed between President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are systematically converting Sri Lanka into a de facto Indian strategic satellite. What follows is not alarmist — it’s what has already been signed, and what it signals for Sri Lanka’s future. A party that once warned against Indian imperialism is now surrendering sovereignty through undisclosed agreements. The nation must wake up as should all politicians & political parties setting aside petty political agendas to safeguard the Nation’s Sovereignty.

ALARMING STRATEGIC SUBORDINATION – THE FRIGHTENING CONSEQUENCES

1. Strategic Subordination to India

India now wields disproportionate influence over Sri Lanka’s:

• Defence: Secret MoU, naval surveillance cooperation, and joint exercises.
• Energy: LNG supply, grid interlink, Trincomalee hub.
• Digital Governance: Aadhaar-style identity, payments, and tech systems.
• Economy: Grants, tied aid, and debt restructuring.

These four areas are fast turning Sri Lanka into a “silent protectorate” — nominal independence, real alignment with Indian strategic objectives.

2. Surrender of Foreign Policy

• Verbal pledge not to undermine Indian securitylimits ties with China, Russia, and other nations.
• Colombo Security Conclavelocks Sri Lanka into India-led strategic architecture.
• Non-alignment legacy undermined, reducing geopolitical freedom.

3. Fragmentation of Internal Cohesion

• India’s aid flows disproportionately toTamil-majority provinces.
• Mythical Ramayana trails, kovil funding, and youth scholarshipsfoster ethno-regional asymmetry.
• Relaunched ferry servicesrisk irregular migration & settlement and demographic imbalance.

4. Digital & Data Colonialism

• National ID (SL-UDI), GovPay, DigiLocker arebuilt on Indian systems.
• Risks ofdata access, manipulation, and surveillance by India on Sri Lankan citizens
• Sri Lankan citizenship and administration will be externally controlled.

5. Loss of Control Over Strategic Assets

• Trincomalee port, grid infrastructure, Northern coastlines are underforeign (especially Indian) influence.
• Indian firms dominaterailways, roads, port construction, often with Indian labor.

IF THIS PATH CONTINUES…

By 2030, Sri Lanka may:

• Depend on India forover 50% of its energy.
• UseIndian-modeled systems for ID, payments, and digital governance.
• Bediplomatically and militarily tethered to Indian foreign policy.
• Face acultural and economic shift in the North & East toward Indian alignment.

SECTOR-BY-SECTOR BREAKDOWN

MINERALS & ENERGY RESOURCES

Signed Agreements:

• 5-Year LNG deal via LTL Holdings.
• HVDC grid interconnection (Madurai–Anuradhapura) by 2030.
• Trincomalee Energy Hub (India-UAE).
• Sampur Solar Plant (India–CEB JV).
• Palk Strait offshore wind mapping.
• G2G MoU on mining graphite, ilmenite, phosphate.

Implications:

• Energy sovereignty lost.
• India dominates upstream tech/EV mineral supply chains.
• Parliament bypassed on major resource decisions (now in Supreme Court).

MARITIME & SEA

Signed Agreements:

• SLINEX-24 naval exercises.
• Colombo Security Conclave – maritime surveillance.

Implications:

• Indian Navy embedded in Sri Lanka’s EEZ.
• Naval strategy aligned to India.
• Risk of involvement in India–China rivalry.

DEFENCE & SECURITY

Signed Agreements:

• 5-Year undisclosed Defence MoU.
• Verbal assurance against anti-India activity.

Implications:

• Legal recourse removed from international jurisdiction.
• Sri Lanka’s defence priorities subordinated.
• Secretive nature undermines democratic oversight.

EDUCATION, CULTURE & DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Signed Agreements:

• SL-UDI via India’s MOSIP.
• Aadhaar/UPI-based GovPay, DigiLocker systems.
• 1,500 training slots for SL civil service.
• 100 scholarships; temple funding.

Implications:

• Totaldigital dependence on Indian tech.
• Loss ofcitizen data sovereignty.
• Cultural encroachmentin Tamil-majority and Buddhist sites.

FINANCE & ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY

Signed Agreements:

• $100M converted to grants.
• $61.5M grants in ports, rail, IT.
• Tied aid: Indian contractors dominate.

Implications:

• Local firms excluded.
• Aid flows reinforce dependency.
• India becomesSri Lanka’s fiscal gatekeeper.

COLOMBO DOCKYARD & STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURE

Signed Agreements:

• May 2025: Colombo Dockyard + India’s Mazagon Dock Ltd MoU.
• Naval vessel manufacturing & repairs to be jointly developed.

Implications:

• Western maritime hub gains Indian foothold.
• Local defence industry increasingly controlled.

WHAT SRI LANKANS MUST DO NOW

1. Legal & Constitutional Safeguards

• Parliamentary oversight of all MoUs.
• Sovereignty Protection Act: Ports, defence, data, energy.
• Ban clauses that restrict international arbitration.

2. Data & Digital Protection

• Mandate local data hosting.
• Audit foreign control of SL-UDI, GovPay, digital IDs.

3. Foreign Policy Rebalancing

• ReaffirmNon-Aligned Movement.
• Review allQuad-aligned military and economic deals.
• Invite broader partnerships (Africa, ASEAN).

4. Protect Strategic Assets

• State majority ownership of ports, energy grids, refineries.
• Ban full foreign control over transmission or digital systems.

5. Cultural Balance

• Equal or greater support for Sinhala, Buddhist, rural sites.
• Monitor politicized temple/kovil funding in strategic regions.

6. Transparency & Public Engagement

• Publishfull texts of all post-Sept 2024 MoUs.
• Holdcitizen forums and debates on implications.

How the West & IMF/WB Will View the Unfolding Scenario

The West may quietly welcome India’s growing footprint — as long as it keeps China out, ensures regional stability, and maintains IMF compliance. India’s role in the QUAD makes this takeover geopolitically “useful” for Indo-Pacific security aims.

However, if India overreaches — triggering public backlash, economic monopolies, or suppressing civic freedoms — the West may slowly shift. Embassies will likely begin supporting alternative civil society actors, opposition parties, and independent media to restore checks and balances.

For the IMF and World Bank, the primary lens remains fiscal discipline and debt servicing. If India helps ensure repayment and enforces “reform” continuity, sovereignty questions may be side-lined — unless public unrest or non-transparency begins to risk broader instability.

How China and Its Allies Will View the Scenario

Beijing will see India’s takeover as a temporary setback to its Belt & Road objectives in Sri Lanka. Hambantota, Port City, and broader Indian Ocean ambitions are being encircled by India’s expanding influence.

Yet, China plays the long game. Rather than confrontation, it will:

• Cultivate economic alliances with disaffected business sectors.
• Build goodwill through non-interference and cultural diplomacy.
• Wait for Indian overreach to provoke a popular backlash.

China’s allies (including BRICS and SCO) may also see India’s dominance in Sri Lanka as overreach — possibly sparking renewed interest in counterbalancing initiatives across the Indian Ocean Region.

India’s post-2024 engagements with Sri Lanka offer infrastructure and aid — but at the cost of strategic independence.

Without public resistance and urgent course correction, Sri Lanka may lose sovereign control over its:

• National defence architecture
• Digital identity and data
• Strategic energy and port assets
• Foreign policy autonomy
• National unity and territorial cohesion

This is not colonization by force — but colonization by agreement.
It is sovereignty surrendered — not stolen.

Sri Lanka must act now — before pen and ink erase 75 years of independence.

Shenali D Waduge